Good morning. The Fed finished its two day meeting yesterday and the market liked what it heard. The Dow closed up 25 points at 17,157 which just happens to be a record high, and the S&P 500 gained 3 points putting it back over 2,000 at 2,002 and on an intraday basis coming within one point of a record high. The Nasdaq added 9 to 4,562. As I’ve mentioned a couple of times this week, the market was looking to see if the Fed would leave the two all-important words regarding keeping interest rates low for a “considerable time” in the post meeting communique, and they did. But then at her post meeting news conference Dr. Yellen, the Fed Chairperson, said the Fed may actually raise rates “faster” and “higher” than one might suppose given current economic circumstances. Technically these are balanced statements but what the Fed is trying really hard to do is manage the market’s expectations on raising interest rates so that when they do it doesn’t send the stock market into a tail spin. During her press conference Dr. Yellen noted that data on employment points to “significant slack” conditions and she noted the difference between the employment data and the more broadly accepted “unemployment rate” but interestingly it was inflation, or lack thereof, that seemed to be her focus. Even though the Fed has pumped trillions of dollars into the system over the last 5 years inflation, as measured by the PPI which is one of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauges, has remained benign over the same time frame and remains well below the Fed’s target of 2%. This gives Ms. Yellen and the Fed cover for keeping interest rates low for now.

Following Dr. Yellen’s comments on interest rates rising faster and higher than one might expect the U.S. dollar skyrocketed moving up nearly 1% against some currencies over the past 24 hours which in the forex market is a stunningly huge move. The dollar hit a 14 month high vs. a basket of indexes and the benchmark U.S. 10 year Treasury note yield hit its highest level since July 7th. Gold took it on the chin falling 1%.

As I write the Scots are going to the polls to vote on whether to secede from the UK. After last week when it was a toss-up the latest polls are indicating the “No’s” should prevail meaning Scotland will remain part of the UK; I’m sure to David Cameron’s relief. But this movement sends a clear signal to London they better pay more attention to Edinburgh.

This morning the euphoria continues with Dow futures up 42 points. The Asian markets closed mixed but all the major European bourses are trading significantly higher on the coattails of equities here in the U.S. and the expectation Scotland will stay in the UK.

As the U.S. dollar rose oil slipped with WTI falling 46¢ to $94.42. Brent ended down a meaningless 8¢ at $98.97. Yesterday’s fall in WTI came after a nearly 3% rise over the previous two sessions. Crude could continue to remain under pressure. One respected forecasting firm has stated the IEA’s (not our EIA) 2015 global demand forecast is 0.4 million bpd too high adding the IEA is also underestimating crude oil production growth here in the U.S. This morning WTI is unchanged being up a penny.

Natural gas continues to inch up closing up 1.8¢ at $4.013. This is the first time natty closed over $4.00 since August 29th and you have to go back to July 16th for the time before that. Yesterday’s close is 7.4% above the low close of $3.724 set on one day in both July and August. Forecasts of a cold winter in the Midwest are supporting prices. Today is EIA storage day and the market is expecting an injection of 92 Bcf which is materially greater than last year’s 38 Bcf injection and the 5 year average of 71 Bcf.

Looking at the forecast below, the cold weather the Midwest and east are having this week will be pretty much be gone by Monday with more normal weather coming in next week. If the 11-15 day forecast materializes the eastern half of the country can expect to have spectacular autumn weather! This morning natty is leaking 2.3¢ as traders wait for the storage figure at 9:30 CDT.

Most of you don’t know this but Pittsburgh, PA’s airport has been financially struggling for years and is mired in debt. 42% of its annual budget goes to pay off debt. Where 600 flights used to take off and land daily now there are only about 300. Partway down Terminal B the moving sidewalk that used to lead to dozens of gates now stops at a plain gray wall. So the airport is looking down for salvation. Not a runway but vertically – about 6,000 feet. The quiet runaways it turns out are sitting on enough natural gas to run the whole freak’n state of Pennsylvania for a year and a half. This month Consul Energy will drill its first well to tap the gas reserves which county officials say will bring then nearly half a billion dollars of the next 20 years! Thank you George Mitchell! Have a nice day.