Good morning. Thank you Fed. Thank you, thank you, THANK YOU! Yesterday right when the major indexes were posting multi-month lows the minutes of the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting in which was stated that 1) that raising interest rates was data dependent and 2) the Fed was concerned about the strength of the U.S. dollar. Regarding the former, the statement was nothing new but additional comments regarding inflation, or specifically the lack there of, was of concern to “several participants.” Specifically, the “concern that inflation might persist below the Committee’s objective [2%] for quite some time.” This can be interpreted is that the Fed is in no rush to raise interest rates. It was the latter topic though that really got the market juiced. As a matter of background, the Fed very, very rarely comments on the U.S. dollar for that is under the purview of the Treasury Department. The minutes stated “the U.S. dollar appreciated against most currencies over the intermeeting period, including large appreciations against the euro, the yen and the pound sterling.” So you’re probably saying “What’s the big deal?” The big deal is the mere fact the monetary authorities found it necessary to comment upon the strong dollar. The result was the U.S. dollar immediately plunged. So what you had yesterday was that there was no threat the Fed was going to raise interest rates anytime soon AND a falling dollar both of which equities absolutely love. When the bell rang at 4 PM EDT the Dow had flown 275 points, 1.64%, to the upside closing at 16,994, the S&P 500 leaped 34 points, 1.75%, to 1,969 and the Nasdaq jumped 83, 1.9%, to 4,469 marking the biggest one-day advance for both the S&P and Nasdaq in 2 years minus 2 days. Booyah! There was some economic data released yesterday but it was all trumped by the Fed’s minutes.

This morning oversea stocks are mixed and Dow futures are down 37 with some profit taking coming in. Often you’ll see a short term correction after a big move. It’s the season and I’m not talking candy and witches but earnings. Alcoa, which is the company that always starts the season, reported and came in better than expected and maybe more importantly, much better than some had feared. Regarding Europe, which is the very much in the global economic focus, Mr. Draghi, the President of the ECB, will appear on a panel in Washington D.C. today with Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. Think anyone will be watching? Uh, duh?

WTI fell $1.54 closing at $87.31 and WTI lost 73¢ settling at $91.38. Slaying the WTI bulls was the DOE released its weekly crude and inventories report yesterday showing crude inventories soaring far more than expected last week. If you’re a bull you really got to be depressed. Equities have their best day in about 2 years and oil prices fall materially, at least in the case of WTI. And throwing fuel on the bull’s fire was the report from the EIA yesterday stating U.S. imports of Canadian crude oil rose to a record 3.25 million bpd last week and the largest import volume since the EIA began publishing weekly data in 2010. The EIA stated that imports from Canada rose 35% on the year as oil-sands producers in northern Alberta ramped up production. Most of the Canadian crude is going to refineries in the Midwest but some if it is finding its way to American ports. Interestingly, while exports of oil produced in the U.S. is effectively banned, crude shipped from Canada faces no constraints on re-exports. Exports of Canadian crude oil from the Gulf of Mexico to other countries outside the U.S. is now about 25,000 bpd but get this, that export volume is expected to grow 20 fold to 500,000 bpd within the next 2 years. All you can say is “Wow!” This morning WTI continues to grind lower being down 74¢.

So goes the weather, or more specifically the forecast, so goes natural gas prices. Yesterday morning’s forecast came in materially more milder than the previous day’s forecast and that was all it took for traders to sell it with the November Nymex contract falling 10.2¢ closing at $3.855. That pretty much sums yesterday’s price action up so moving on to today we have the EIA weekly storage report at 9:30 CDT. Expectations are for a 111 Bcf build which is material my friends. Last year we had a 921 Bcf injection and the 5 year average is 84 Bcf so we’ll definitely cut into the deficits. Now before you go out and sell natty remember, as in all markets, it’s how “actuals” come in relative to “expectations” for expectations are built into the market, i.e. current natural gas prices have 111 Bcf built in. This morning is the calm before the storm with natty down 2¢ as I write. Have a good day.