Equities and the Economy:

Wow! Whoo-hoo! Huge day yesterday! The Dow jumped a big 371 points, 2.1%, to finish at 18,259, the S&P 500 popped 46 points, 2.2%, ending at 2,132 and the Nasdaq rose a hefty 120 points, 2.4%, to 5,166. The move yesterday was all about the election and the belief that with James Comey, the FBI Director, sending a letter to Congress on Sunday stating that after reviewing emails on Anthony Weiner’s laptop, whose wife at the time was an aide to Clinton, the FBI concluded that no crime was committed, Clinton’s chances of winning the election markedly improved. Apparently Wall Street is more bullish if Clinton is president than Trump. I’m sure there’s a plethora of reasons, not the least of which is 1) Clinton is more of a known commodity to the financial community than Trump, and 2) history has shown that equities perform better during Democratic presidencies than Republican.

I bet you forgot but we’re still in Q3 earnings season. With 88% of the S&P companies having reported earnings for the quarter are coming in 4% better than analysts’ projections, the biggest beat since Q2 2015.

By the way, if you review the Blog from last week you’ll read that we were due for a bounce. The market was oversold in the short term. After weeks of very little movement I thought the bounce would come tomorrow, after the election. Obviously I was off a couple of days. Stepping back and looking at the forest rather than the trees, we’re still in the 2,100 to 2,200 range basis the S&P. Admittingly, we did break through the 2,100 support level to 2,085 last week, but the move down was not definitive. As technician’s sometimes say “The thickness of the line trend line can make things a bit more ambiguous.”

This morning as the polls open across the country investors are off their desks drinking coffee around the water cooler talking politics for the market is quiet with the Dow down 44 points.

Oil

Oil prices got a lift yesterday from the momentum in equities with the accompanying “risk on” mode throughout the world. WTI rose 82¢, 1.9%, closing at $44.89 and Brent ended up 57¢, 1.3%, to $46.15. OPEC has vowed to follow through with its plan to curb production. The cartels’ Secretary General Barkindo said “I have heard from the highest quarters in Moscow that Russia is on board” with the oil production cuts. In my opinion the best OPEC is going to get out of Russia is a freeze at current production levels which, oh, are at a record level right now, as is OPEC’s. Per S&P Global Platts, OPEC production in October rose to a record 33.54 million bpd. It looks like every country wants to get their production as high as possible so if a cut is agreed upon their baseline will be high.

This morning WTI is retreating a bit being down 36¢.

Courtesy of MDA Information Systems LLC

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices rallied yesterday with the December contract closing 4.9¢ higher at $2.816. The calendar strips rallied as well. That being said, we’ve just been chopping around of late for the calendar strip prices closed yesterday very marginally higher than 4 sessions ago. This morning though the bulls are getting slayed for natty is down a big 11.4¢. The weather forecast is the culprit for having moved cooler in the east yesterday for the 11-15 day time frame, this morning the warmth returned for that region of the country. That time frame puts us to November 22nd. Not much time in November left for the bulls.

Elsewhere

Well after a year and a half it’s finally arrived. Election Day. No more campaign commercials! No more robo-calling! Yeah! Here is some trivia

Hillary Clinton is the first woman to clinch the nomination for a major party but the first woman to run for president was Victoria Woodhull, leader of the Suffragette movement in 1872 – almost 50 years before women could vote (1920).

Although Donald Trump would be the oldest first term president at 70, Ronald Regan won his second term at 73.

John F. Kennedy was the youngest president at 43.

Donald Trump if elected would one of the tallest at 6 ft. 3. The tallest, Abraham Lincoln at 6 ft. 4.

Ronald Regan is the only divorced man to be elected. If elected, Donald Trump would be the second.

Two presidents won 49 out of 50 states: Ronald Regan and Richard Nixon.

A candidate has lost the election while winning the popular vote four times. Al Gore in 2000, Grover Cleveland in 1888, Samuel Tilden in 1876 and Andrew Jackson in 1824.

Grover Cleveland is the only person to win two non-consecutive terms. That is why Barak Obama is listed as the 44th U.S. President even though there have been 43 presidents.

The Twitter handle @POTUS, which has more than 11 million followers, will be made available to the new president on January 20th. It will retain its followers but start with no tweets on the timeline.

Hillary Clinton raised $1,068,100 and Donald Trump raised $512,200.

Since 1944 Ohio has voted for the winner in every election, except one, 1960, when Ohio went for Richard Nixon instead of John F. Kennedy. No Republicans has ever won the presidency without winning Ohio.

And finally, if you want to be our next presidential candidate all you need to be is: at least 35 years old, a permanent U.S. resident for at least 14 years and considered a natural U.S. born citizen.

A final thought. Regardless of the outcome of this election, the country will survive. Democracy can be an angry visceral process filled with vitriol and animosity. But be very, very happy you live in a democracy for democracies settle differences with words versus guns.