Equities and the Economy:

• All three major indexes close at new record highs!

U.S. equities closed higher at fresh records yesterday giving the three major indexes their third simultaneous all-time closing highs this year. The Dow closed 89 points higher, 0.47%, at 18,957, the S&P 500 rose 16, 0.75%, to end at 2,198 and the Nasdaq finished up 47, 0.89%, at 5,369. Your portfolio is smiling! The last time all 3 indexes closed at record highs at the same time was back in mid-August and before that it had not occurred since 1999! So indeed yesterday was a very good day! Since election day on November 8th the Dow is up 3.4%, the S&P 500 has climbed 2.7% and the Nasdaq has risen 3.4%. Investors have been banking on a big jump in spending by the Trump Administration boosting economic growth. The Fed has stated for years that monetary policy can only take the economy so far and that fiscal policy was needed. Well it looks like it’s going to happen. At the same time, U.S. debt is going to skyrocket. One of the things I’ve noticed is that finally “good news” is “good news,” i.e. good news drives stocks higher as opposed to weighing on the market on fears of an interest rate increase, which by the way, is going to happen next month. And nobody will really care for a change!

This morning we’re blazing new ground with all the indexes higher: Dow up 55, S&P up 5 and Nasdaq up 19.

Oil

• Crude prices jumped big yesterday: WTI closed up $1.80 at $47.49. Brent added $2.04 settling at $48.90.

And it wasn’t just oil prices that popped yesterday. Most all commodities rose with the price of a common broad commodity index up 2.8%. Not only is that a material increase, it’s in the face of a strong U.S. dollar. When a strong dollar is coextensive with strengthening commodity prices your antennae should be raised. That’s very bullish amigos. Back to oil, traders seem to believe that some sort of agreement will be reached by OPEC next week in Vienna. I believe the same. Indeed, an agreement on a production freeze or even a cut will be announced and signed. However, there is a great chasm between an agreement on paper and implementing the production freeze or cut. If there is something I’ve learned over the decades it’s that OPEC members cheat. Always have. Always will. It’s basic economics and self-preservation. Even if production is cut in the short term, which would be accomplished by Saudi Arabia cutting production, and prices rise, the U.S. producer will be more than happy to step in and produce more. As I’ve said before, in any commodity the marginal producer sets the price, and Saudi Arabia is no longer the marginal producer. The U.S. producer is.

This morning WTI is up 10¢. Chatter.

Courtesy of MDA Information Systems LLC

Natural Gas

• Natural gas prices continue their march higher yesterday closing up 10.7¢ closing at $2.950.

• Prices have rallied 45¢, 18%, in less than two weeks.

The calendar strip prices, which I also closely focus on, rose sharply as well with cal ’17 and cal ’18 settling up 7.5¢ and 4.6¢, respectively. The driver has been the colder weather, including blizzard Argos over the weekend making watching college football really fun!, with yesterday’s cash prices up 25¢ to 30¢ from Friday. That strength is continuing today. Example: On Friday the wholesale spot cash gas in Philadelphia for the weekend was $1.83. Yesterday is was $2.38. Today it’s $2.99. Strong amigos. After the recent big gains prices are settling in at around the $3 with the December contract trading up 2.9¢ this morning.

Due to the Thanksgiving holiday the EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report tomorrow, a day earlier than usual.

Elsewhere

This will be the last Blog for the week (taking tomorrow off). Here are some interesting facts regarding Thanksgiving.

• The first Thanksgiving was not a feast but rather a time when Native Americans helped Pilgrims by bringing them food and helping them build off the land.

• Columbus thought the land he discovered was connected to India, where peacocks are found in considerable number. He believed turkeys were a type of peacock so he named them “tuka,: which is “peacock” in the Tamil language of India.

• Turkeys are not of the peacock family. They are a type of pheasant.

• It was not until 1941 that Congress declared Thanksgiving a national holiday. It was declared to be the 4th Thursday in November.

• 91% of Americans eat turkey on Thanksgiving Day.

• Fossil evidence shows that turkeys roamed the Americas 10 million years ago.

• Turkeys can have heart attacks. When the Air Force was conducting test runs and breaking the sound barrier, fields of turkeys would drop dead.

• Ben Franklin wanted the turkey to be the national bird.

• In October of 1777 all 13 colonies celebrated Thanksgiving for the first time. However, it was a one-time affair commemorating a victory over the British at Saratoga.

• A spooked turkey can run at speeds up to 20 mph. They can also burst into flight approaching speeds between 50-55 mph in a matter of seconds.

• Thomas Jefferson thought the concept of Thanksgiving was “the most ridiculous idea I’ve ever heard.”

• Turducken (originated in Louisiana), a de-boned turkey stuffed with a de-boned duck stuffed with a de-boned chicken, is becoming more popular. The cavities between the birds are stuffed with a highly seasoned breadcrumb mix.

• There are regional differences as to the “stuffing,” or “dressing,” traditionally served with turkey. Southerners generally make theirs from cornbread while other parts of the country use white bread.

• On the West Coast Dungeness crab is common as an alternate main dish instead of turkey as the crab season starts in early November.

• About 280 million turkeys are sold for Thanksgiving celebrations.

• More than 40 million green bean casseroles are served on Thanksgiving.

• Twenty percent of cranberries eaten are eaten on Thanksgiving.

• Fifty percent of Americans put the stuffing in the turkey.

• The Guinness Book of Records states that the greatest dressed weight recorded for a turkey is 86 lbs. (39.09 kg), at the annual “heaviest turkey” competition held in London on December 12, 1989.

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving. Give thanks for your blessings.