Good morning and welcome back. Driven by a very positive monthly jobs report U.S. equities jumped on Thursday with the Dow closing up 92 points, 0.54%, to 17,068 which was the Dow’s first closing ever over 17,000 and the 3rd consecutive day the bellwether closed at a record high. The S&P 500 gained 11 points, 0.55%, ending at 1,985 which was also a 3rd consecutive high. The Nasdaq added 28 points, 0.63%, to 4,486 rising for the 3rd straight week and its highest level since 2000. There’s nothing negative there my friends, except if you or your fund manager’s performance are not keeping up with the major indexes, which by the way have the lowest expense ratios. As I mentioned, it was the Labor Department’s employment report showing the U.S. added 288,000 jobs in June and much greater than economists’ expectations that drove the indexes higher. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, the lowest since September 2008.

This morning stocks are retreating somewhat with the Dow down 57 being driven lower by European stocks which are being driven lower by a negative German Industrial Production report. Estimates were for 0.2% growth and the actual number was -1.8% so you can see that was a big miss for Europe’s biggest economy.

The EIA released its weekly natural gas storage report last Thursday showing that an even 100 Bcf was injected into storage for the week ending June 27th. This was the 8th consecutive injection of at least 100 Bcf setting a record. In 2001 we had more weeks in the summer of at least 100 Bcf but it was not consecutive weeks. Although the 100 Bcf number came in right at expectations, 101 Bcf, traders did not want to go into the long weekend short and pushed natty up 4.9¢ closing at $4.406.

This morning is a different story with the bears firmly in control with the August contract down a material 13.9¢. Just look below and you’ll see why. Over the next few days there is some A/C load along the northeastern seaboard but it is being completely offset by no load conditions in the upper Midwest and normal temperatures in the south. But the goring the bulls are taking this morning is really being driven by the 6-15 day forecast showing very mild conditions in the upper Midwest and northeast and that forecast is taking us into the 3rd week of July. Below normal temperatures means a weak cash market. Now I must note that the NOAA forecast for the 6-15 time frame is more bullish, warmer, so over the next couple of days we’ll see who are the better forecasters.

Oil closed out the week weaker with WTI falling 42¢ to $104.06 and Brent slipping 24¢ to an even $111.00 on rumors of Libya increasing exports which were “confirmed” over the weekend with reports that the country has lifted its force majeure on two of its oil ports, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf. This is putting pressure on WTI with it down 27¢ this morning. I say “confirmed” because events are as they say in the political arena, “fluid” in the middle East.

In April, the latest data available, the U.S. exported 268,000 bpd of crude oil. This is the highest level in 15 years. Exports have increased sharply since the start of 2013 and have exceeded 200,000 bpd in 5 of the past 6 months. To export crude oil a company must obtain a license from the Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce who have very strict requirements. Almost all of the exports have been delivered to Canada. We just celebrated our independence and this is just another form of it! Have a good day.

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