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August 5th. Morning Energy Report

Good morning. Yesterday U.S. equities closed out the day very well with a late day rally pushing the Dow up 76 points to 16,596, the S&P 500 up 14 to 1,939 and the Nasdaq a nice 32 points higher to 4,383. In the short term the market was way oversold (there’s actually technical indicators you can look at on data like that but it is very dependent on your time horizon. For example, the market may be way oversold on a few day basis but not in the medium or long term. So your strategy and tactics are function of your time horizon) and the bears trading in the short term covered their shorts on a decent earnings report from Berkshire Hathaway and the announcement the government of Portugal rescued the country’s largest bank, Banco Espirito Santo, the latter being one of the reasons for last week’s sell off. That being said, investors are still cautious after the carnage wreaked last week’s carnage (falling 3% in 5 days and the worst week in 2 years) and everyone is double checking their portfolio.

Image-Flickr_Wind Turbines for Aug 5 Blog

Photo: Wind Turbines by Chrishna / Licensed under CC BY 2.0

It looks like yesterday was a dead cat bounce for the Dow is down 80 points this morning and this is despite the European markets trading nicely higher. The Asian markets closed mixed with Japan’s Nikkei getting whacked closing down 1% to its weakest level in a week. The European market got some good news in the form of positive retail sales (up 2.4% vs. a consensus of 1.2%) and as better than expected Purchasing Managers Indexes out of Germany and Great Britain.

Oil bounced after falling more than $10 over the past month with WTI closing up 41¢ at $98.29 and Brent gaining 57¢ to $105.41. Brent’s getting a minor bid from the activities in Iraq where it’s reported that ISIL, formerly ISIS, has succeeded in taking control of a massive dam near Mosul in northern Iraq controlling water suppliers along the Tigris river. However, the situation appears to be ”fluid” with reports of the Kurdish Peshmerga, the elite soldiers fighting for an independent Kurdistan, engaging the ISIL.

This morning WTI is down 29¢, chatter.

Natural gas ground 3.6¢ higher yesterday closing at $3.834. Natty prices have been chopping around between $3.75 and $3.85 for about 2 weeks now. Wonder why we stabilized here? I believe I know. The dip in the jet stream pattern over the Midwest remains firmly entrenched resulting in below normal temperatures and great weather there (if you don’t have a pool!) keeping a lid on natty prices. Prices are trying to break out of the trading range this morning with the September contract up 5.2¢ as I write.

When it comes to renewable electric generation hydropower has been the king. Not anymore. April, the latest data available, marked the 8th consecutive month that total monthly nonhydro renewable generation exceeded hydropower generation. Only a decade ago, hydropower, the historically dominant source of renewable generation, accounted for three times as much generation in the U.S. as nonhydro renewable sources (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, landfill gas and municipal solid waste).

The big difference in recent years has been the growth in wind and solar, which reflects policies such as state renewable portfolio standards and federal tax credits as well as declining costs of technology, has been the primary driver in the increasing market share of nonhydro renewable generation. It’s expected that 2014 will be the first year ever in which nonhydro renewable generation surpasses annual hydropower generation. Have a nice day.

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