Equities and the Economy:

• Dow ends at record.
• S&P and Nasdaq flat to down marginally.

It was a choppy day yesterday but saying that, the Dow did manage to eke out another record high closing up 9 points at 23,557. The S&P 500 closed flat to Monday at 2,591 and the Nasdaq slipped 18 points to 6,768. Not too bad considering all three indexes closed at record highs on Monday marking the 26th time this year all three indexes have simultaneously posted record highs. The three indexes are up between 16% and 26% for the year. Even if we get no additional gains between now and the end of the year, 2017 will be a very good year! The expanding economy, growing corporate profits, loose monetary policy and bets that President Trump will deliver on tax cuts are all boosting the economy. A perfect (positive) storm!

Speaking of President Trump, his popularity may be at a record low for a president at his first anniversary in office, but investors could care less. During Trump’s first year the Dow has gained a whopping 28.5% posting the largest gain during a president’s first year since 1945 after FDR’s first year in office when it logged a staggering 29.83% rise. Since 1926 when Calvin Coolidge was in office the average first year Dow gain has been 6.04%.

Regarding fundamental data, the government’s September Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released yesterday came in little changed from August showing there were 6.1 million job openings. Job openings have been at or near record high levels since June. Separately, consumer borrowing surged in September by the largest amount in almost a year per the Fed. A lot of this was due to borrowing for education and automobiles with the latter caused by flooding from Harvey and Irma. This is positive because consumers borrowing increases when they feel better about their economic circumstances.

Global equities are mixed, and so are the U.S. indexes with the Dow down 6.

Oil

• Prices retreat from more than 2 year highs.
• Geopolitical issues continue to support.

After jumping by more than 3% on Monday marking their largest daily gain since September and closing at their highest levels since June 2015, prices backed off a little yesterday with WTI dropping 15¢ to $57.20 and Brent finishing down 58¢ at $63.69. Monday’s move higher was almost entirely due to the “anti-corruption” purge, i.e. power consolidation, of government officials, members of the royal family and businessmen by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Although it’s highly unlikely any disruption in oil supplies will occur, it does bring more unease to the market. Additionally, tensions have increased between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both of these matters increase the “risk premium” in oil boosting prices.

As usual, last evening the API released its crude and products report after the closing bell. Crude oil inventories fell more than expected last week by 1,562 million barrels but this was offset by an rise in gasoline stocks of 520,000 barrels. Looks like refineries are making money. On the benign API report WTI is down 13¢ this morning. Chatter. Today the EIA releases its crude and products report. The EIA report carries more credence. Reporting to the API is voluntary. Reporting to the EIA is mandatory.

Courtesy of MDA Information Systems LLC

Natural Gas

• Prices remain strong.
• Weather supports.

That polar pig in western Canada I told you I was watching last week has slipped into the northern U.S. bringing very cold temperatures to the northern plains, Midwest and northeast with last week’s forecast manifesting itself this week. Temperatures from Chicago to Cincinnati to New York City to Boston are going to be 12 to 18 degrees below normal with the coldest days being Friday and Saturday. No doubt gas will be withdrawn from storage this week. This event has driven prices materially higher and yesterday the December Nymex contract added another 1.8¢ closing at $3.152, a 6 month high. The news is not all bullish though for on Monday U.S. natural gas dry production hit a record high of 74.6 Bcf/d driven by increases in the Marcellus and Utica as new, incremental pipeline capacity slowly but surely becomes operational.

The weather forecast remains supportive with cold weather expanding in the 11-15 time frame. Natty is up 1.8¢

Elsewhere
Many people expect increasing memory loss as they age, but this memory loss can be reduced or stalled with some simple memorization techniques, physical exercise, and a reduction of stress. In fact, impaired memory has more to do with chemicals that are released in the brain when an individual suffers from chronic stress. However, you can reduce the obstacles and increase your memory capacity.
Some of the tips you may already know but they’re worth repeating.

Be in the Moment
1. You can’t remember something if you’ve never learned it, so focus on learning.
2. You don’t need to enroll in a college to learn. You can learn something from educational television programs, from on line courses, books, or from other individuals.
3. It only takes about eight seconds to process data through your hippocampus into the appropriate memory center, so it doesn’t take long to absorb information.
4. You need to pay attention to your environment so that you can encode this information into your brain.
5. To learn how to stay in the moment, don’t focus on the past or worry about the future while you’re learning.
6. Don’t multitask as you create a “brain drain” when you focus on more than one activity.