Equities and the Economy:

• U.S. major indexes hit record highs.
• Economic data good.

All three major U.S. stock indexes booked all-time closing highs yesterday as investors unwound the “fear trade” they had on because of Irma and North Korea loading up on riskier assets, which stocks are. The Dow rose 61 points finishing at 22,119, its 36th record of 2017. The S&P 500 added 8 points ending at 2,496, notching its second record in as many days and its 32nd this year. The Nasdaq closed up 22 points at 6,454. Investors were not only unwinding the fear trade but were also encouraged by fundamental data. The Labor Department in its JOLT’s report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) stated that employers posted 53,000 new job openings in July taking the number of openings to 6.17 million. That probably doesn’t mean anything to you, but this should. This is a new record high and the first time job openings have topped 6 million for two straight months since the government began keeping track in 2000. The other report came from the Census Bureau which said household income increased in 2016 up an inflation adjusted 3.2% from 2015 to $59,039. This is a new high surpassing the previous peak in 1999. Interpretation: the average family is finally recovering from the Great Recession.

This morning the Dow is down 16 points, Chatter.

Oil

• Prices notch 2nd day of gains.
• OPEC report shows cartel production fell.

Oil prices got a mild boost yesterday on an OPEC report that the cartel’s production fell 79,000 bpd in August to 32.76 million bpd. Production had been on the rise over the summer raising concerns the production cut agreement was in jeopardy. WTI logged a 16¢ gain to $48.23 and Brent rose 43¢ to $54.27. Yesterday the API released its weekly crude and products reports stating crude oil inventories fell 6.2 million barrels last week which was way above expectations of 4.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories plunged by 7.9 million barrels, more than 3 times expectations. These whacky numbers are all due to Harvey. Our EIA released a report yesterday which lent support to prices. The agency said it projected oil demand to increase by 1.6 million bpd, 1.7%, in 2017 and that global fuel inventories have dropped to near their five year average. The EIA releases its weekly crude and products report today.

These reports are bringing out the bulls the morning with WTI up 44¢.

Courtesy of MDA Information Systems LLC

Natural Gas

• Prices continue to rally.
• Weather forecast continues to trend warmer.

Natural gas prices continue to rise as weather forecasts continue to trend warmer and traders come to grips that we’ll go into this winter with less gas in storage than last year. The October contract pushed above the $3.00 level for the second time this month logging a 5.1¢ closing at $3.001. Every day this week the weather forecast has come in warmer and while this won’t add much, if any, A/C load in the Midwest and East, it will increase natural gas load in the south. Regarding storage, we’re currently 7% below last year at this time and while that is forecasted to drop to 5% by the end of the injection season, i.e., October, its making traders reluctant to go short, at least at the $2.80 level, which we’re currently way above. Bottom line here folks is that with storage capacity available don’t expect a big drop in prices this fall. If prices were to drop the owners of storage capacity, of which I was in a previous life, will buy the physical molecule and sell the futures.

This morning the bulls remain in control with natty up 5.3¢.

Elsewhere

Here’s some information that is only useful for winning a drink at a bar. Fall is coming, which means it’s the mating season for deer. Deer can be a major road hazard at any time, but are especially dangerous during the fall mating season, particularly in these 10 states. These are the top 2016 deer-crash risk rankings from auto insurance giant State Farm, which uses claims data and driver counts to determine the likelihood that a motorist will hit a deer in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

State Farm says the claims for these accidents cost about $4,000, on average. The states with the highest odds of having a run-in with a deer are:

No. 10. Mississippi. Odds of hitting a deer: 1 in 87.

No. 9. Wyoming. Odds: 1 in 85.

No. 8. Michigan. Odds: 1 in 84.

No. 7. Minnesota. Odds: 1 in 80.

No. 6. Wisconsin. Odds: 1 in 77.

No. 5. South Dakota. Odds: 1 in 70.

No. 4. Iowa. Odds: 1 in 68.

No. 3. Pennsylvania. Odds: 1 in 67.

No. 2. Montana. Odds: 1 in 58.

And the state with the highest odds of hitting a deer:
West Virginia. Odds: 1 in 41. Filled with rural, winding roads the odds of a driver colliding with a dear in West Virginia, which ranked number one last year as well, have actually increased from last year by 5.4%.