Market Monitor – 2019 ERCOT 4CP (Four Coincident Peak) Seasonal Review

The 2019 ERCOT 4CP Season, which ended on the last day of September, witnessed new monthly records for August and September with the August peak representing a new record demand in ERCOT.

On Monday, August 12, ERCOT established a new record overall peak level at 74,897 MW. This new level surpassed the previous record peak by ~1,600 MW or slightly more than two percentage points from the previous record set in July of 2018. Intraday prices reached over $4,000/MWh as tight reserves margins coupled with record demand forced a surge in prices.

Intraday prices reached the offer cap of $9,000/MWh on Thursday, August 15, as actual wind generation came in ~5,000 MW less than forecast. Despite it not being a monthly record demand day, the reduction in wind generation caused a surge in expensive fast ramping generation and reserves to meet demand.

On Friday, September 6, ERCOT established a new record monthly peak level at 69,187 MW, which surpassed the previous record September peak from 2018 by ~2,300 MW or ~3.5% with prices spiking to ~$1600/MWh.

2019 4CP Days:
• Wednesday, June 19: 68,271 MW at 5:00 PM CT
• Tuesday, July 30: 71,162 MW at 4:30 PM CT
• Monday, August 12: 74,896 MW at 5:00 PM CT
• Friday, September 6: 69,187 MW at 4:45 PM CT